Al Mayadeen – October 4, 2024
Resistance in the region will not retreat: Sayyed Khamenei
The Leader of the Revolution and the Islamic Republic of Iran, Sayyed Ali Khamenei, affirmed that the Resistance in the region would not waver, as demonstrated by its fighters, and declared that Operation True Promise 2 is both a legitimate and lawful right.
During the Friday sermon at the Mosalla Mosque in Tehran where the memorial service for Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and his martyred companions was held, the leader of the Islamic Revolution and the Islamic Republic of Iran Sayyed Ali Khamenei began by honoring Sayyed Nasrallah, with a heartfelt tribute.
In his Friday Prayers sermon, the first he has led in years, he said, "I saw it fit to honor my brother, my pride, the popular figure of the Islamic world, and the shining pearl of Lebanon, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, during Tehran's Friday prayers," adding, "We are all saddened and grief-stricken by this great loss, but our mourning does not mean that we must be depressed, or feel hopelessness."
Sayyed Khamenei emphasized that Sayyed Nasrallah was a brave defender of the oppressed, and a support for freedom fighters, a leader "whose popularity went far beyond the borders of Lebanon, Iran, and Arab countries."
He added that Hezbollah and its martyred leader are the essence of Lebanon's Resistance, "[an essence] we came to know through the graces it offered", highlighting that Hezbollah and its martyred leader have taken a vital step for peace for the entire region through their defense of Gaza.
Sayyed Khamenei also stated, "Sayyed Nasrallah has led a difficult struggle for 30 years, and under his leadership, Hezbollah has grown step by step... Hezbollah truly is a blessed tree."
'Every community has the right to defend its sovereignty'
Sayyed Khamenei emphasized that enemies of the Islamic nation are also enemies of Palestine, Lebanon, Iraq, Egypt Syria, and Yemen. He assured that the Islamic nation is aware and can successfully overcome enemy plots, stressing that support must be given to people under attack from enemies seeking hegemony over them; "we must defend them".
Sayyed Khamenei stated that every community has the right to defend its sovereignty and self-determination against occupiers, asserting that no international law prevents Palestinians from defending their land and exercising their duty in liberating their land, and further adding that no one has the right to oppose Hezbollah for its decision to support the Palestinian people.
The Iranian leader honored Lebanon's diehard defense of the Palestinian people, describing it as "correct and natural".
'Resistance took Zionist entity back 70 years'
Sayyed Khamenei stated that the West has concluded that the entity has not achieved victory at all against Hamas and Hezbollah.
"The principal factor for wars, insecurity, and backwardness in the region is the presence of this entity and the presence of countries that claim to strive for peace," he said, adding that the main problem in the region is foreign interference.
On that note, discussing the strength of the Resistance, he said that the "cowardly enemy was unable to deal a blow to the firm structure of Hamas, Hezbollah, PIJ, and other [Resistance] movements struggling in God’s name, and so resorted to faking victory through assassinations, destruction, and bombing civilians".
Sayyed Khamenei elaborated, "This approach has only fueled growing anger, strengthened the motivations for resistance, led to the rise of more men, leaders, and martyrs, and gradually tightened the noose around the bloodthirsty wolf."
He added that the Resistance in the region will not back down with the martyrdom of its men, and victory will be on the side of the Resistance, highlighting that the "struggle of the men of Palestine and Lebanon has taken the Zionist entity back 70 years."
Sayyed Khamenei emphasized that the Israeli entity is "a malicious tree that has been uprooted from the face of the earth, as the Almighty's words hold true: it has no stability." He further noted, "There is no doubt that the dreams of the Zionists and Americans are nothing but impossible illusions."
In this context, he emphasized that "the loss of the revolution's leaders in Iran was a difficult blow, but it did not halt or slow the course of the revolution; instead, it propelled it forward at a faster pace."
Operation True Promise 2
Regarding the recent Iranian operation, Sayyed Khamenei emphasized, “Operation True Promise 2 is a remarkable step by our armed forces, fully justified and entirely within the bounds of legality and legitimacy.”
He stressed that what Iran did is the minimum punishment that must be dealt to the Zionist entity for its horrible crimes, adding that Iran will not waver in fulfilling its duty. "We will not delay, act impulsively, rush, or fall short in our responsibilities."
Al Mayadeen's correspondent in Tehran reported that this is the first time in nearly five years that Sayyed Ali Khamenei has led Friday prayers in Tehran, following the assassination of martyred leader Qassem Soleimani.
In addition, Iranians in the capital, Tehran, chanted "We are at your service, Nasrallah" during the memorial ceremony for the martyred leader.
Iran FM reaffirms strong backing for Lebanon, its Resistance
Abbas Araghchi has reaffirmed Tehran's steadfast commitment to supporting Lebanon in its fight against Israeli aggression.
Iran's top diplomat reiterated Tehran's commitment to supporting the Lebanese government, its people, and the Resistance in their struggle against the Israeli aggression.
During a meeting on Friday in Beirut, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi discussed recent developments in Lebanon with Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati.
The Prime Minister condemned the Israeli actions as blatant war crimes and criticized the UN Security Council for its inaction regarding "Israel's" reckless behavior.
In response, Araghchi reaffirmed Iran’s resolve to stand by the Lebanese government, its nation, and Resistance against Israeli aggression. He emphasized the necessity for collaborative efforts among all Islamic and Arab nations to expose the extent of "Israel's" criminal and unlawful actions.
Araghchi concluded by urging international organizations to mobilize for coordinated action to halt the Israeli onslaught.
He also addressed the Iranian attack on "Israel", emphasizing that it was a legitimate act of self-defense, in accordance with United Nations principles.
The Iranian diplomat highlighted that Tehran targeted only military and security facilities. He stressed that his country did not initiate the attack, describing Iran's actions as a "response to the targeting of Iranian territory, our embassy in Damascus, and Iranian interests."
In this context, he emphasized that if "Israel" takes any action against Iran, the country's response will be stronger, proportional, comprehensive, and calculated. He clarified that Iran has no plans to escalate unless the Israeli entity decides to target it.
Iran pledges unwavering support for Lebanon in talks with Berri
During his meeting with Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, the Iranian Foreign Minister affirmed that Iran is determined to provide comprehensive support to Lebanon in the face of Israeli aggression.
He also emphasized that his country’s support for Lebanon aims to achieve peace and stability in the region and to put an end to the genocidal actions being carried out by "Israel".
Upon arriving in Beirut, Araghchi wrote on X: "I am in Beirut—alongside members of our Parliament and Red Crescent Society—to make clear that Iran will ALWAYS stand with people of Lebanon."
He also called on other countries in the region to support Lebanon against Israeli aggression.
It is worth noting that Lebanon's caretaker Minister of Health, Firass Abiad, announced on Thursday that the death toll of the Israeli aggression on Lebanon since October 8 has risen to 1,974, including 127 children and 261 women, with an additional 9,384 people injured, marking a preliminary figure amid the ongoing Israeli aggression.
Snippets from Ayatollah Khamenei's sermons during Friday prayers in Tehran
By Alireza Hashemi
Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei led the congregational Friday prayers in the capital Tehran for the first time in five years, attended by more than a million people from different parts of the country.
The prayers followed two sermons in which the Leader made a passionate call for Muslim unity in the face of continued genocidal crimes by the apartheid Israeli regime in Gaza and Lebanon backed by the United States.
Ayatollah Khamenei told the massive gathering that Muslims face a common enemy and warned that failure to support those oppressed and subjugated by this enemy could only exacerbate the suffering of Muslims worldwide.
In the second sermon delivered in Arabic and addressed to Arabic-speaking people in Lebanon and Palestine, Leader of the Islamic Revolution paid rich tribute to Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, who was assassinated by the Israeli regime last week in the southern suburb of Beirut.
He lauded the extraordinary resistance shown by Hezbollah and Hamas, despite the loss of key leaders and amid continued aggression by the Zionist entity.
Leader of the Islamic Revolution also commended Iranian armed forces for the retaliatory military operation against the Zionist entity, calling it a "brilliant work."
The historic Friday prayers in Tehran came a week after the martyrdom of the Hezbollah chief and his associates and three days after Iran's retaliatory military operation that targeted key Israeli military installations in the occupied territories.
Here are important snippets from Ayatollah Khamenei's Friday sermons:
First sermon:
- If Muslims are united, they can access God’s unlimited power and benefit from divine principles that favor them.
- Quranic teachings emphasize that Muslims have velayat, or guardianship, over one another. When Muslims stand united and cohesive, they can overcome all obstacles and defeat their enemies.
- This unity counters the strategies employed by adversaries who seek to divide the Muslim Ummah through various deceptive tactics. However, Muslims are becoming increasingly aware, and the collective strength of the Muslim nation can prevail against such deceit.
- The enemy of the Muslim world is also the enemy of Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Yemen, and other nations. This enemy employs diverse methods to dominate Muslim countries—sometimes through diplomacy and sometimes with military force or economic sanctions. Yet it remains a singular adversary.
- If this enemy can conquer one nation using these tactics, it will inevitably target others. To resist this pressure, nations must remain vigilant and support those under attack.
- Muslims have long neglected their struggle against this enemy, resulting in significant consequences.
- Islamic defensive rulings outline our responsibilities, while international law establishes our objectives: every nation has the right to defend its territory against aggressors.
- This means that the Palestinian people have the right to resist those who have destroyed their homes and farmland—a fact recognized by many.
- No international tribunal or organization has the authority to challenge Palestinians in their fight against the Zionist regime.
- Likewise, no entity can criticize Hezbollah for supporting the Palestinian uprising; such actions align with Islamic principles, wisdom, and logic.
- All recent attacks, particularly Operation al-Aqsa Storm, represent legitimate and lawful actions taken by Palestinians in self-defense against ongoing aggression.
- The courageous support of the Lebanese people for Gazans is equally logical and legitimate. Furthermore, Iran's Operation True Promise II was entirely legal and justified.
- The actions of our armed forces were a necessary response to the horrific atrocities committed by the Zionist regime—America's "rabid dog" in the region.
- The Islamic Republic of Iran will decisively and resolutely fulfill its responsibilities in this matter. We will neither procrastinate nor rush in executing these duties.
- What is logical will be acted upon at the appropriate time, and future actions will be taken as deemed necessary by Iran.
- Second sermon:
- The loss of the shining jewel of Lebanon, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, is a profound tragedy. He played a pivotal role in reviving hope and inspiring others through his indomitable spirit and will.
- The essence of our mourning for Nasrallah mirrors our mourning for Imam Hussein; it revives, inspires, and fosters hope. His spirit and will remain with us forever.
- Nasrallah was a steadfast supporter of those who fought for righteousness, encouraging their efforts.
- He nurtured Hezbollah like a seed that has flourished into a powerful force, igniting faith and resisting adversaries.
- The assassination of Nasrallah represents an accumulation of sacrifices; however, rather than weakening us, such losses have strengthened our resolve.
- It is incumbent upon all Muslims to defend against resource usurpation and confront America's role in safeguarding its entity's security.
- The Zionists and Americans are deluded in their belief that their entity will remain stable. The Zionist regime is inherently unstable, relying heavily on American support which has only exacerbated its challenges.
- The regime's expenditures on aid from America and Western countries stand in stark contrast to its limited achievements.
- America's focus on preserving this entity's security is part of its broader policy aimed at controlling regional resources. Yet they have ultimately failed.
- The clear evidence of this failure lies in billions spent bombing Gaza and Lebanon over the past year—achievements that amount to nothing more than destruction of schools, hospitals, and homes.
- Iran experienced the assassination of prominent revolutionary figures during the 1980s; each one was a pillar of the revolution. Losing them was a significant blow; however, despite these losses, the march of the revolution intensified and resistance continued to grow stronger.
- The criminal regime ruling the occupied territories has made no progress over the past year and has reached a point where its primary concern is merely preserving its existence.
- The main challenge in the region is foreign interference. Regional countries should be dedicated to establishing peace and security. Achieving this noble goal requires sustained efforts.
Significant damage, fires in Galilee region reported in Hezbollah rocket attack
Israel has detected the launch of 100 rockets from Lebanon since Friday morning, with some of the rockets causing fires in the Galilee region, according to Israeli Channel 12.
The rockets, fired by Hezbollah, led to the activation of sirens across northern Israel.
Some of the projectiles landed in open areas, causing wildfires in parts of Galilee, although no casualties have been reported so far.
Separately, the head of the local council in Metula Settlement, David Azulai, stated: "Approximately 50 incidents of rocket and shrapnel landings were recorded in Metula over the past 24 hours,” according to the daily Haaretz.
Azulai added: "Significant damage was caused to homes, playgrounds, courtyards, and essential infrastructure such as electricity and water supplies."
He also mentioned that fires broke out due to the rockets, leading to further damage, including a warehouse being hit.
Metula has been one of the most heavily targeted areas since the hostilities between the Israeli army and Hezbollah began nearly a year ago.
Earlier on Friday, Israel's army radio reported that 60 rockets had been fired from Lebanon, with sirens continuing to sound in settlements near the Lebanese border.
Hezbollah and Israel have been engaged in cross-border warfare since the start of Israel's war on Gaza, which has killed over 41,800 people, most of them women and children, following an attack by the Palestinian group Hamas last October.
In Lebanon, at least 1,947 people have since been killed, nearly 9,400 injured, and 1.2 million others displaced, according to Lebanese authorities.
The international community has warned that Israeli attacks in Lebanon could escalate the Gaza conflict into a wider regional war.
Escalation spiral and looming war in the Middle East
By Murat Yesiltas
With new actors joining the fray and Israel's aggressiveness intensifying, the Middle East braces for a broader regional war
On the evening of Oct. 2, a few hours before the Iranian retaliation against Israel, Israel was considered to have a clear psychological advantage in the ongoing multi-front conflict in the Gaza context. While Israel was destroying the whole of Gaza, ostensibly to destroy Hamas, it had targeted and neutralized every senior Hezbollah commander of the last decade or more in Lebanon and killed the organization’s charismatic leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in a targeted attack.
Having paralyzed Hezbollah militarily, Israel was preparing for a military invasion on the ground to create a buffer zone in southern Lebanon. In Lebanon, Israel targeted senior commanders of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards along with Hezbollah. While in Syria, it neutralized Iranian-backed elements. Israel also bombed the Houthi-controlled port of Hodeidah in Yemen, intimidating the Houthis.
These developments, which show that Israel holds the balance of deterrence and escalation dominance, clearly gave Israel a psychological superiority, albeit temporary. However, Iran’s retaliation with 200 ballistic missiles makes it necessary to rethink the events of the past few weeks. More importantly, it raises doubts about the sustainability of Israel’s psychological advantage and puts the region at risk of a wider war.
A double-edged sword
The character of Iran’s offensive package is quite different from that of April 13, and this new situation makes it difficult for Israel to maintain its deterrence and escalation dominance. The April 13 attack was timed in Israel’s favor to give Israel and its allies time to mount a defense. Iran’s initial retaliation, consisting of kamikaze drones and cruise and ballistic missiles, was mostly neutralized and failed to produce a strategic result. The Oct. 2 retaliation, however, surprisingly gave Israel and its allies limited time to defend Israel, and some of the missiles were able to hit Israeli targets. Israeli air defense systems were unable to neutralize all of the missiles, as evidenced by the resulting images, demonstrating that Iran can penetrate Israel’s critical military and civilian installations if it so chooses. Therefore, in terms of its strategic impact, it had a greater impact than the April 13 retaliation.
The content of the retaliation package was also different from that of April 13. The retaliation, mainly consisting of ballistic missiles, was accompanied by hypersonic missiles, showing that Iran’s attack inventory was quite diverse. More importantly, Israel’s lack of geographical depth and the fact that it bases its defense capability solely on technological and military superiority exposed Israel’s weaknesses in a protracted escalation game. As a result, with its latest retaliation, Iran has shown that it is not weak, that it has the capacity to play an escalation strategy and, most importantly, that its options are not limited.
In addition to these tactical and operational dimensions, Iran has at least partially allayed the suspicions that its proxies in the region have built up against it in recent weeks. This means that Iran will continue to support its friends against its regional adversaries when necessary. However, Iran is still far from providing a security umbrella for its regional proxies.
While the nature of Israel’s retaliation remains a mystery, the form, nature and scope of retaliation will determine the character of Iran’s next step and increase the risk of a regional inter-state war. This is because an Israeli retaliatory action against Iran’s nuclear facilities could provoke a swift and harsher Iranian response. Similarly, an Israeli strike on Iran’s military installations or other critical civilian infrastructure, particularly energy and other critical civilian infrastructure, will also determine the character of Iran’s likely response.
There are two critical issues in the escalation strategy. One is the scale of escalation, and the other is its sustainability. A military action always provokes a reaction and traps the parties in an escalation dilemma. Sustainability is mainly about capacity and resilience. On both issues, Israel and Iran have dilemmas and limitations. Israel taking a step up the multi-front escalation ladder could make it more vulnerable to Iran, while an escalation by Iran could shift the U.S. from a defensive to an offensive posture on Israel’s side. In this case, the escalation process would be complete and could lead to full-scale mutual aggression.
In such a situation, the parties may need to act rationally. However, rationality is a relative concept, and often, decisions are not the result of rational calculations. Given Israel’s move away from strategic rationality, it would not be surprising if it takes more risky steps. These possible steps may also lead Iran to take dangerous steps by detaching itself from the rational ground. Therefore, unless one of the parties returns to rational ground, the risk of war is always high. The current developments show that this risk of war is very high.
Revisionism vs. status quo
As Israel’s aggression in Gaza enters its second year and the risk of inter-state confrontation has increased, the Middle East is witnessing a clash of two trends. The fact that Israel targeted Lebanon after Gaza proves that Tel Aviv does not want to return to the pre-Oct. 7 status quo. Continuing its occupation in Gaza, trying to create a buffer zone by occupying southern Lebanon and aiming to defeat or completely weaken non-state armed actors shows that Israel is pursuing a revisionist policy. This revisionist policy seems to have found a response in the U.S. Although there are differences of opinion in the White House administration on the issue of limiting Israel, the current atmosphere points to blind support for Israel.
In the face of revisionism, Iran is one of the actors who want to return to the status quo. The Tehran administration, which has difficulty in protecting its proxy elements compared to previous years, is trying to create a deterrence that will ensure a return to the status quo under the pressure of direct attacks by Israel and the U.S. However, it will not be easy for Iran to return to the pre-Oct. 7 regional status quo. In this case, Iran’s expansionist proxy doctrine may have to give way to a limited nation-state security doctrine.
Looking at the countries in the region, it is hard to say that there is a single strategic goal. While the Arab states have a goal of avoiding regional war, they are not far from accepting Israel’s revisionism and are waiting for Iran to wear down so that it does not return to the status quo. Türkiye, on the other hand, has already declared that it considers the potential impact of Israel’s revisionist stance on Syria as a red line, emphasizing the need for Iran to change its security doctrine based on expansionism. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s speech at the opening of the Turkish Parliament is important as it confirms Ankara’s approach.
As the ongoing genocide in Gaza passes the one-year mark, Israel’s aggressive behavior is not only drawing the region into a full-scale war but also fueling international instability. As long as Israel and Iran cannot escape from the escalation dilemma they are caught in, we are getting closer and closer to a regional war.
Murat Yeşiltaş is a professor of international politics in the Department of International Relations at Social Sciences University of Ankara. He specialized in the study of international security, terrorism, geopolitics and Turkish foreign policy. Yeşiltaş also serves as the director of foreign policy research at SETA.
https://www.dailysabah.com/opinion/columns/escalation-spiral-and-looming-war-in-the-middle-east
